Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 13.221316 15.112744 17.164279 19.552891 22.255693 25.217298 28.706670
2024-10-13 10.756493 13.359678 16.407976 20.233450 24.898274 30.393921 37.351792
2024-10-20 9.126801 11.953235 15.428313 20.001329 25.846261 33.051170 42.590160
2024-10-27 7.537322 10.356222 13.977635 18.950485 25.579046 34.085425 45.802181
2024-11-03 6.890410 9.858327 13.814804 19.445311 27.218480 37.533415 52.215429
2024-11-10 6.348416 9.424263 13.664887 19.898427 28.781292 40.929628 58.738512
2024-11-17 5.691472 8.746926 13.094326 19.681183 29.348785 42.945683 63.429602
2024-11-24 5.084132 8.073448 12.454980 19.285087 29.590888 44.469427 67.461599
2024-12-01 4.666061 7.638798 12.117981 19.286847 30.383928 46.795718 72.757531
2024-12-08 4.375651 7.370798 12.001759 19.598118 31.640039 49.852101 79.292780
2024-12-15 4.077939 7.060786 11.788620 19.729059 32.606259 52.501995 85.335240
2024-12-22 3.755803 6.679582 11.427022 19.585106 33.110117 54.442340 90.353893
2024-12-29 3.518699 6.428268 11.268179 19.777617 34.198406 57.414851 97.278083
2025-01-05 3.372010 6.320393 11.339190 20.357349 35.962304 61.578152 106.390586
2025-01-12 3.107526 5.977480 10.977533 20.160885 36.387693 63.547673 111.956938
2025-01-19 2.731611 5.397172 10.153910 19.089877 35.223187 62.771535 112.821741
2025-01-26 2.628659 5.316061 10.212555 19.592483 36.844965 66.815649 122.170321
2025-02-02 2.526208 5.226196 10.246284 20.047331 38.402373 70.824265 131.666918
2025-02-09 2.342513 4.960999 9.932180 19.829064 38.709655 72.633941 137.340538
2025-02-16 2.152789 4.666735 9.539433 19.429958 38.647208 73.763750 141.828839
2025-02-23 2.026667 4.491164 9.362357 19.431791 39.336372 76.289024 148.998695
2025-03-02 1.944787 4.400683 9.345618 19.745265 40.639294 80.011477 158.586383
2025-03-09 1.849179 4.272545 9.242943 19.877149 41.590225 83.115600 167.158387